Will Russia ban grains export in 2023?

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the entire world was feared about food supply. Russia and Ukraine are the world’s largest grain suppliers. Is there anything to be concerned about food suppliers in 2023?

Most of our fears have passed. There were plenty of grains from South America, USA and Australia in 2022. Some weather problems in India and China went almost unnoticed.
But now, even though USDA and Sovecon are forecasting huge crops in Russia for season 2022/23, President Vladimir Putin strikes fears into our hearts again.

According to him, no one can predict grain crops in Russia. He warns about a ban on exports:

“We must, of course, allow this sector to work, to make a profit so that they can invest in the result of the 2023 harvest… in processing, in animal husbandry… We cannot allow everything to be dragged abroad. Despite all the restrictions on logistics on freight, on insurance – nevertheless, it’ll all fly out. It already is. That’s why we absolutely need stable reserves, absolutely.”

President Vladimir Putin

If Sovecon is overrated for wheat crop predictions (forecast for 101.2 million tonnes), there could be a ban on export. USDA is more conservative when it comes to their forecasts, the last “Grains: World Markets and Trade” report predicted 91.0 million tonnes in 2022/23.

Is there anything the world should be afraid of when it comes to Russian grains export this year? What do you think?