Macro Point Of View

What Fifty Years of Augusts Tell Me About Gas, Carbon and Soybeans

Most people skim seasonal tables. This month I slowed down on one, because August turned out unusually clean. Only three

The shortest truce of this war lasted 48 hours. On July 27, American-Iranian talks resumed and the fighting paused —

This was a week of things happening underneath the headline numbers. The July 29 Fed decision everyone’s watching is probably

European diesel margins just hit an all-time record: beating even the 2022 highs from the Russia–Ukraine war.

This week the data stopped telling one story and told three at once.

The global energy market is currently treating systemic supply-chain vulnerabilities as isolated incidents. In our latest deep-dive on Substack, I

The weather is voting for scarcity and the grain balance sheets are listening. This week I dig into a global

The June truce is already dead: tankers hit in Hormuz, the June memorandum declared finished, and Brent climbing toward $80.

This week scarcity showed up right where consumers feel it. US coffee stocks fell for a 14th straight week (−55.8%

Brent is still holding above $70/bbl, but I don’t think it lasts. This week I dig into the growing gap