Macro Point Of View

OPEC vs. the IEA: The $100 Oil Market Nobody Agrees On

This week, the two most authoritative voices in oil published forecasts that contradict each other almost completely. OPEC says 2026

The US Department of Agriculture dropped its October crop reports on Friday and, against almost every pre-report guess, it raised

The biggest meeting of the year came and went, and settled almost nothing. Two leaders shook hands in Washington, called

Europe’s drought stopped being about crops this week and became about electricity.

Most people skim seasonal tables. This month I slowed down on one, because August turned out unusually clean. Only three

The shortest truce of this war lasted 48 hours. On July 27, American-Iranian talks resumed and the fighting paused —

This was a week of things happening underneath the headline numbers. The July 29 Fed decision everyone’s watching is probably

European diesel margins just hit an all-time record: beating even the 2022 highs from the Russia–Ukraine war.

This week the data stopped telling one story and told three at once.

The global energy market is currently treating systemic supply-chain vulnerabilities as isolated incidents. In our latest deep-dive on Substack, I