Metals & Macro Weekly: A Hawkish Fed, Copper Fractures Across Exchanges, Gold Holds Firm

This week the data stopped telling one story and told three at once.

Forget rate cuts: the market now prices an 85.6% hold and a 14.4% hike for July 29, with a cut off the board entirely. That hawkish backdrop is the lens for everything: gold pinned near $4,020 despite a firm dollar above 100, and copper fracturing across venues: COMEX near its highs, China’s import premium jumping 20% in a week, and Shanghai stocks draining 20%.

I also unpack the violent base-metals warehouse reshuffle (aluminium +57%, lead +55% in seven days), the US natural-gas cost edge and a possible tanker leak off Oman. It all points one way: the market is pricing tension, not ease.

Read the full breakdown on my Substack → [LINK]

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