European diesel margins just hit an all-time record

European diesel margins just hit an all-time record: beating even the 2022 highs from the Russia–Ukraine war.

And the reason should worry anyone watching European inflation. It’s no longer just about Iran’s Hormuz blockade; the market is now pricing the threat to a second vital artery, Bab el-Mandab — the “Gate of Tears” off Yemen, within reach of the Iran-backed Houthis, who’ve already forced ships to reroute around southern Africa once before. Over 7 million barrels a day flow through that gate in peacetime, and the Houthis have now announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.

This feeds straight into transport and industrial costs across Europe — and, I’d argue, into the inflation numbers over the coming months.

Read my analysis on my Substack → [LINK]

If you want this read every week before the move, that’s where I publish first.