My Final Warnings for Q2: The Softs Collapse and Macro Black Swans

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I’ve just published the final installment of my Q2 2026 Commodity Outlook. While everyone is watching the war in the Gulf, I’m seeing some massive shifts in the softs market that shouldn’t be ignored.

In this closing piece on Substack, I explain:

  • The Cocoa Short: Why I’m targeting $3,000 and why the supply squeeze is over.

  • Coffee & Sugar: My strategy for navigating these “energy-linked” agriculturals.

  • The Tail-Risks: The “Black Swan” event I’m losing sleep over this quarter.

The commodity supercycle is far from over, but the risks are shifting. Don’t go into Q2 without a plan.

[Read my Final Q2 Report on Substack]