Iran and the US Made Peace. Israel Says ‘No, Thanks’

Brent just dropped nearly 5% to $83, its lowest since March 10, after the US and Iran announced a peace memorandum on Sunday. On the surface, that’s the de-escalation everyone’s been waiting for.

But Israel says it isn’t part of the deal, and Iran just proved it can shut the Strait of Hormuz essentially on demand. I don’t think that risk goes away just because a memorandum got signed.

This week I break down why I’m not fully buying the “risk-off” trade plus where gold goes after its correction, what the Fed’s first decision under new chair Kevin Warsh might bring on Wednesday, and the grain levels I’m watching after the latest USDA data.

[Read the full breakdown on MacroPOV (Substack)]