A Bad Feeling About the Harvest

The weather is voting for scarcity and the grain balance sheets are listening. This week I dig into a global wheat deficit that keeps deepening (USDA sees the US crop down a stunning 22.6%: the smallest since 1970/71), Western Europe’s hottest June on record and a corn market sliding toward a 23.4 Mt shortfall as France’s harvest risks a ~32% collapse.

I also make the contrarian case on cocoa: why I think ICE’s ~24% margin hike is capping prices as much as the profit-taking is. Also take a closer look on the battery raw-material race that’s quietly becoming a front in modern economic warfare.

Read the full breakdown on my Substack → [LINK]

If you want my commodity and macro read every week before the move, that’s where I publish first.