Where I Think the USDA Is Still Wrong: Corn, Wheat, Soy and Cocoa

The US Department of Agriculture dropped its October crop reports on Friday and, against almost every pre-report guess, it raised the numbers a bigger corn yield, a record soybean crop. The grain complex sold off on the shock. Supply is fine, the headline says.

I don’t buy it.

The same week USDA was printing abundance, NOAA upgraded El Niño to a potentially historic event, one of the strongest since 1950, building into exactly the regions (India, Australia, West Africa) its forecasts lean on.
And Beijing quietly confirmed it has no intention of buying what American farmers grew: China has booked just 12.4 million tonnes of soybeans against a 25-million-tonne pledge, down 45% on the year.
When the government spreadsheet and the Pacific Ocean say opposite things, I know which one I trust.

In the full piece I break down the corn level that flips the trend, the India wheat number I don’t believe, the soybean trade that hinges on one Chinese decision, the farm-belt politics before the midterms, and the cocoa setup building toward $8,000.

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