The AI Commodity Illusion: Copper Deficits Meet the Return of the Fed Hawks

The narrative around artificial intelligence is hyper-focused on chips, but the real macro battlefield is physical infrastructure. Between data center gridlock and a massive looming deficit in industrial metals, tech expansion is hitting a wall of raw physical reality.

Concurrently, the US labor market remains stubbornly tight, pushing the CME FedWatch probabilities toward a structural rate-hike regime under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The paper market is pricing in rate cuts, but the macro data paints an entirely different picture.

In my latest brief, I break down the hard numbers from S&P Global, the FAO, and the latest CME data to analyze the upcoming supply crunch across copper, lithium, and winter wheat.

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