Crude Oil Update: Structural Supply Crushes Defy Wall Street Optimism

The paper markets are resting easy, betting on an imminent resolution in the Persian Gulf. But the physical data paints a far more volatile picture.

Behind the headline-grabbing OPEC+ quota adjustments lies a hard truth: Middle Eastern producers have completely run out of domestic storage and export infrastructure due to the ongoing Hormuz blockade. Concurrently, US emergency energy reserves are being completely cannibalized, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropping by another 7.9 million barrels this week alone to a critical multi-decade low.

In my latest brief, I use raw data to analyze Brent’s strict Fibonacci consolidation, the structural multi-billion barrel OECD deficit projected for late 2026, and why SLB’s massive artificial intelligence play in Venezuela is a sign of things to come.

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