The Fed Blinks Later, Not Now and a Commodity Cold War Heats Up

This was a week of things happening underneath the headline numbers. The July 29 Fed decision everyone’s watching is probably a hold, the real hike bets sit later (77% for September, 85% for October) as a weak jobs print (+57k NFP, unemployment 4.2%) buys the FOMC time. I explain why Kevin Warsh’s presser matters more than the decision itself.

I also dig into the quieter, more strategic stories: industrial metals splitting east-vs-west into a fresh Commodity Cold War front, the Black Sea grain corridor choking (a third exporter halted, ~33% of Ukraine’s capacity lost), a record global coffee crop, and the elegant reason sugar just decoupled from oil.

Read the full breakdown on my Substack → [LINK]

If you want my macro & commodity read every week before the move, that’s where I publish first.