Iran and the US Signed Peace. Qatar Won’t Be Fixed Until 2032

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Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the peace memorandum this week: the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the Iranian port blockade ends, and a 60-day window opens for the bigger nuclear and sanctions deal, plus a $300 billion Iran rebuild.

But signing the paper and getting back to normal are two different things. Demining the Strait alone could take 40-50 days, and one major Gulf LNG terminal isn’t expected to be fully repaired until 2030-2032.

This week I break down the IMF’s split GDP forecasts for the region, why the IEA still sees a 2026 deficit flipping into a big 2027 surplus, this week’s larger-than-expected US inventory draw, and what Equinor’s bigger buyback says about where things go next.

[Read the full breakdown on MacroPOV (Substack)]

Iran and the US Signed Peace. Qatar Won't Be Fixed Until 2032