# real Santa Claus rally 2022

The phrase ‘*Santa Claus rally’* is a very common sentence in December each year. Both small investors and large hedge funds are interested in making money during these kinds of days. Is it being used correctly? When was the Santa Claus rally supposed to occur? And do we have a chance of holding such a rally in 2022?

### Definition

Since 1972, the period around Christmas has been known as the ‘*Santa Claus rally’*. This term was first used by Yale Hirsch in the *‘Stock Trader’s Almanac.’* Initially, it was based on the last five trading days of the year plus the two first trading days of January. It is worth noting that statistics from 2019 show that since 1950, the stock market has historically risen on average 1.3% per year.

Investopedia, however, describes the ‘Santa Claus rally’ as a period up to two weeks before Christmas.

In some media, we can also find an opinion that the ‘*Santa Claus rally*‘ starts at the very beginning of December and continues until the end of the first week of January. That is a very mistaken idea that could cost you a lot of money from too early investements.

Remember that the market is always moving and there is no guarantee that a ‘*Santa Claus rally*‘ will occur each year.

### Historical records

The ‘*Santa Claus rally*‘ is about the stock market. Let’s see how it was with stock market indices from Europe, the United States, and Japan…

##### DAX 40 (Germany)

Since 1995, 64% of the end of the year data shows that Germany’s stock market is rising. It is slightly better before Christmas than it was in the last week of the year.

##### FTSE 100 (United Kingdom)

London is well known as the financial capital of Europe. It is therefore not surprising that they have 70% second half of December above zero!

##### S&P 500 (USA)

Shall we cross the Atlantic and see what we can find in the New York Stock Exchange? But in the U.S., we have a very short run: just three trading days before Christmas. The historical rising is in 65% cases.

##### NASDAQ 100 (USA)

Statistics (full report available in the shop) indicate that there are some differences between the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ 100. But not in the case of a ‘*Santa Claus rally*‘! Three trading days before 25th December is in the same direction as two main US indices!

##### Nikkei 225 (Japan)

Another ocean crossing is occurring in the Pacific this time. Will the stock indices in a country without a Catholic background also move up? According to the numbers, not really. There are less than 60% chances of a rally during the second half of the month.

### Daily statistics for 33 instruments during Santa Claus Rally 2022

As a fan of statistics, I run numerous market data that are organized in simple to read numbers. I will soon prepare an entire article about these statistics, but for now, you can take a look at the numbers. It will show you the trading days with a strong statistical direction (either long or short) for the period between December 19, 2022 and January 3, 2023. Most instruments have two sets of period: one that is long (up to 47 years!) and the other that is last 10 years as a “litmus paper” for market date. Those statistics were accurate in over 80% of cases last week before Christmas 2021.

For a strong signal is 70% for 11+ year periods and/or 80% for last 10 years period. Best signal is when it’s stron statistic for both periods!

##### December 19, 2022

- NZD/USD

75% long for 20-years period with average range +0,44% - FTSE 100

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,31% - NatGas

80% short for 10-years period with average range -2,19%

##### December 20, 2022

- USD/PLN

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,41% - EUR/PLN

70% short for 20-years period with average range -0,34% - copper

73% long for 37-years period with average range +0,91%

##### December 21, 2022

- EUR/PLN

70% long for 20-years period with average range +0,20% - CAC 40

78% long for 32-years period with average range +0,85%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,41% - DAX 40

71% long for 27-years period with average range +0,78% - S&P 500

73% long for 22-years period with average range +0,60% - Dow Jones Ind. Av.

73% long for 22-years period with average range +0,67% - Russell 2000

71% long for 34-years period with average range +0,90% - corn

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,66%

##### December 22, 2022

- EUR/USD

75% long for 20-years period with average range +0,18%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,21% - BTC/USD

73% long for 11-years period with average range +2,54% - FTSE 100

82% long for 22-years period with average range +0,60%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,58% - NASDAQ 100

73% long for 22-years period with average range +1,15% - Russell 2000

71% long for 34-years period with average range +0,86% - Apple Inc

77% long for 22-years period with average range +1,48% - Nikkei 225

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,66% - soybean

72% long for 32-years period with average range +0,70%

##### December 23, 2022

- GBP/JPY

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,42% - AUD/USD

70% long for 20-years period with average range +0,30% - Euro Stoxx 50

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,75% - CAC 40

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,55% - S&P 500

73% long for 22-years period with average range +0,45% - Dow Jones Ind. Av.

82% long for 22-years period with average range +0,48%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,65% - Russell 2000

82% long for 34-years period with average range +0,54%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,53% - crude oil Brent

73% long for 33-years period with average range +1,49%

100% long for 10-years period with average range +2,33% - crude oil WTI

85% long for 39-years period with average range +1,53%

100% long for 10-years period with average range +2,72% - gold

70% long for 47-years period with average range +0,48%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,50% - silver

76% long for 42-years period with average range +1,16%

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,93% - corn

75% long for 32-years period with average range +0,74% - wheat

81% long for 32-years period with average range +0,89% - soybean

75% long for 32-years period with average range +0,81%

##### December 26, 2022

- EUR/USD

85% long for 20-years period with average range +0,26%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,24% - NZD/USD

70% long for 20-years period with average range +0,31%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,26% - gold

74% long for 47-years period with average range +0,53%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,47% - silver

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,92%

##### December 27, 2022

- EUR/USD

75% long for 20-years period with average range +0,32% - NZD/USD

79% long for 19-years period with average range +0,55%

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,40% - U.S Dollar Index (DXY)

80% short for 15-years period with average range -0,26% - Netflix Inc

80% short for 20-years period with average range -1,00%

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,48% - Tesla Inc

83% long for 12-years period with average range +1,63%

##### December 28, 2022

- GBP/JPY

79% short for 19-years period with average range -0,35% - AUD/USD

84% long for 19-years period with average range +0,37%

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,29% - NZD/USD

80% long for 15-years period with average range +0,62%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,69% - FTSE 100

91% long for 22-years period with average range +0,58%

90% long for 10-years period with average range +0,53% - Tesla Inc

75% short for 12-years period with average range -1,42% - copper

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,88%

##### December 29, 2022

- EUR/USD

75% long for 16-years period with average range +0,36%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,26% - AUD/USD

80% long for 15-years period with average range +0,57% - CAC 40

71% longfor 24-years period with average range +0,68%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,50% - FTSE 100

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,54% - NASDAQ 100

71% short for 21-years period with average range -0,91% - Amazon Inc

70% short for 10-years period with average range -2,24%

##### December 30, 2022

- BTC/USD

80% long for 5-years period with average range +1,62% - Dow Jones Ind. Av.

73% short for 15-years period with average range -0,36%

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,35% - Amazon Inc

76% short for 17-years period with average range -1,43% - NatGas

74% short for 23-years period with average range -2,28% - copper

74% long for 27-years period with average range +0,71%

##### January 2, 2023

- EUR/USD

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,65% - GBP/JPY

71% short for 21-years period with average range -0,98%

80% short for 10-years period with average range -1,27% - NZD/USD

100% short for 10-years period with average range -0,64% - Euro Stoxx 50

71% long for 24-years period with average range +1,51% - WIG 20

81% long for 26-years period with average range +1,10% - gold

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,96%

##### January 3, 2023

- EUR/USD

71% short for 21-years period with average range -0,68%

80% short for 10-years period with average range -0,46% - indeks dolara amerykańskiego (DXY)

73% long for 15-years period with average range +0,46% - CAC 40

70% long for 33-years period with average range +0,61% - FTSE 100

70% long for 23-years period with average range +0,48%

80% long for 10-years period with average range +0,34%

It’s impressive, considering there are only 12 trading days, that the statistic is provifing 72 strong signals! Use it and you will not regret it.