Why Global Oil Supply Could Hit a Wall by August

Every week, I dive deep into the plumbing of global energy markets to figure out where the macro economy is heading. This week’s findings are incredibly urgent: we are currently witnessing an invisible, massive drain of 1.2 billion barrels of oil from global inventories.

Between alternative data showing a 10+ million bpd deficit, Iran charging clandestine $150,000 fees to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and US Strategic Reserves plunging by nearly 10 million barrels in a single week, the market is sitting on a powder keg. Wall Street is showing an unhealthy amount of optimism, but my analysis suggests a supply crunch could hit some economies as early as this August, potentially driving oil past $120/bbl.

I’ve just published the full, detailed breakdown—complete with China’s dramatic export cuts, Saudi Arabia’s emergency maneuvers, and what this means for potential government energy restrictions—over on my Substack.

Read the full Weekly Oil Market Report on Substack