Cocoa Markets: Why Port Arrivals Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Ivory Coast port arrivals

The biggest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, had port arrivals of beans until 8th February (from 1st October) reach 1,263 million tonnes (mln MT). It’s -4.46% s/s, which should support prices on the market. Yet, the cocoa futures market in the USA is still falling.

What’s behind the seemingly good (for prices) news?

Rain and (no) wind

First, it’s weather. It’s pretty good in West Africa. There were enough rains in January, which is typically the dry season, that left soil moisture is sufficient for the April-September harvest. And also Harmattan, a northern, usually dry and dusty trade wind, didn’t appear too strong in the 2025/26 winter. That’s a good sign for the ending of main crops.

Centrally planned cocoa economy

Ivory Coast and neighborly Ghana have pretty strict rules for the cocoa market. While farms are privately owned, the coca price is set by the government. That made Western African farmers make less money when cocoa hit over $10,000/MT than, for example, farmers from Ecuador. For the 2025/26 Ivory Coast set buyout price at around $5,100/MT (2,800 CFA francs). Ghana set the price around $4,640/MT (58,000 Ghanaian cedi). Both prices are over the market price since 20th January 2026 and make it almost impossible to get it to farmers. Also, Ivory Coast and Ghana keep the LID (Living Income Differential) premium – which is another $400/MT, which drives the total price for something between $5,000/MT (Ghana) and $5,500/MT (Ivory Coast). That’s almost 20% higher than the market price.

No money, no hon… beans!

Farmers are withholding beans due to payment delays, yet some government officials say they refuse to buy cocoa from farmers for their own set price. That’s creating an “artificial” supply squeeze. It’s not affecting the overall price, yet. Those beans are in the farms, so before those beans start losing quality, we have something around 3 to 6 weeks. Also, farmers might be pushed to sell beans for much lower prices, simply to get money to survive.

Demand is the key

The whole demand of 2025 was hit by rising cocoa prices. Additionally, global CPI in 2025, estimated around +4.2% y/y, which is about half of CPI for 2024, was still higher in cocoa products. Chocolate producers didn’t raise prices as they should in 2024 and beginning in 2025, so we saw a moment when chocolate prices were going up while cocoa prices on the market were falling. That makes demand fall about -9.07% y/y in Asia (under 2018 levels) and Europe fall over -6.1% y/y (under 2016 levels). Only North America slightly rose, +0.35% y/y, but they also rose in the number of plants reporting by +7.14% y/y, which might affect the beans ground number.

Supply third power

When investors say “cocoa”, they have in mind mostly Ivory Coast and Ghana. Those two countries for years have provided around 70% of cocoa beans to the world. Yet, prices rising above $10,000/MT in 2024 and 2025 were slowly creating a third cocoa superpower. While cacao trees in Western Africa were getting older and not fertilized enough, market-price-driven Ecuador was blooming. For the 2025/26 season, Ivory Coast is expected to be a 45% supplier, while Ghana and Ecuador will fight for second place, providing around 15% of beans each. This broadens the horizon necessary for investors to observe.

Does cocoa become a balanced market?

After years of deficit, season 2025/26 should bring balance to the cocoa market. Falling overall demand, rising supply from West Africa and Ecuador made prices fall. Dry seasons also support this balance. This might also turn into a slight oversupply, which will keep prices far under $5,000/MT.

Does that mean we will return to prices around $3,000/MT as a normal level? Without a lot of investment in Ivory Coast and Ghana, it’s very unlikely to remain so low.

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