Cocoa’s $5,000 Comeback Explained in 5 Minutes
Cocoa is back above $5,000 a tonne: and in this quick 5-minute brief I break down exactly why, and why it may not stop here.
Two forces are squeezing the next West African crop at the same time.
Right now, rainfall is running as much as 20% above average: heavy rain knocks the flowers off before they set into pods and fuels fungal disease. Then, heading into 2026/27, the forecast flips to an extreme dry spell, with the Harmattan wind set to hit an already weakened tree stock.
Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa board is bracing: after contracting nearly 1 million tonnes, it raised its required premium from $0 to $135/t to cool buying. On top of that, buyers are flagging beans that aren’t dried enough: meaning more mould and shrinkage in transit.
I cover the supply math, the quality risk, and what I’m watching next.
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