Oil Weekly: A 2027 Surplus Looms, Tankers Normalize, and LNG Demand Heads for +65%

Brent is still holding above $70/bbl, but I don’t think it lasts. This week I dig into the growing gap between a tight physical barrel today and a drowning forecast barrel tomorrow. Rystad sees Iranian output back above pre-conflict levels by year-end, Iraq is discounting to clear storage, and Morgan Stanley now models a ~4.8 mbpd surplus building from Q4 2026, with the IEA pointing to supply above 110 mbpd in 2027.

Yet the tape refuses to break: Hormuz tanker traffic is the strongest since the conflict began, VLCC freight has halved from its war peak, US pump prices are still 40%+ above pre-conflict levels, and total US crude stocks just hit their lowest since 1984. I also unpack Shell’s call for LNG demand to rise ~65% by 2050.

Read the full breakdown on my Substack → [HERE]

If you want my oil and macro read every week before the move, that’s where I publish first.