Commodities Weekly: Cocoa Above $5,000, Gold Defends $4,000, EU Grains Cut Again

This week, the weather wrote the price action. Cocoa punched back above $5,000/t on ICE as heavy West African rain wrecks the next crop and a dry Harmattan turn looms into 2027. Brussels trimmed EU corn and wheat again on heat damage, rapeseed-oil imports are set to crater ~38%, and Canada quietly became the first G7 government to fund a Greenland mine. Meanwhile, gold is clinging to $4,000 and silver slipped under $60, both pinned by a dollar that has cleared 100 on hawkish rate bets.

I unpack all of it: the cocoa supply math, the EU grain ledger, the rapeseed range I’m watching, the Greenland critical-minerals angle, and why metals can’t catch a bid. 

[Read the complete analysis on my Substack]

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