Oil Is Back in Pre-War Range. The Forward Curve Sees August 21 as the Next Test.

This Week on MacroPOV: Crude Oil Macro Perspective

Brent crude just closed the war gap — price is back in the $64–$73/bbl range it held before the Gulf disruption started in late February.

But the Dubai sour crude forward curve is encoding something more nuanced than a simple price recovery. The 1M–2M spread is in backwardation, pricing near-term flow optimism. The 3M is back in contango — because the market has already identified August 21, the day the 60-day memorandum expires, as the next inflection point.

This week I break down the forward curve structure, the WTI year-on-year normalisation (briefly negative this week, after peaking at +80%), ADNOC’s fourth crude tender, Asian August bookings, the UN seafarer evacuation through Hormuz, the EIA inventory data (crude draw nearly double expectations, SPR at –17.7% YoY), and what the Dallas Fed energy survey says about US production costs and service company staffing.

[Read the full Crude Oil Macro Perspective on MacroPOV]