U.S. Prospective Plantings – March 2023

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On Friday, March 31, 2023, the National Agricultural Statistics Service from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published the report ‘Prospective Plantings’. What are the changes for the main crops in the United States?

Analytics expectations

Hours before publication, analytics expected corn area to be up by +2.6% y/y to 90.9 million acres.

For soybean they expected 88.2 million acres, which is +0.8% y/y.

Report data (NASS USDA) March 31, 2023

Corn will be planted on 92.0 million acres, which is +4.0% y/y.

The most significant rising areas (>+20% y/y) are in:

  • North Dakota (+27% y/y),
  • Arizona (+25% y/y),
  • Washington (+23% y/y),
  • Idaho (+22% y/y),
  • Mississippi (+21% y/y),
  • Virginia (+20% y/y).

The largest area drop (>-10% y/y) is in:

  • Wyoming (-11% y/y).

The main states of corn production are:

  • Iowa (14.2% of planting area),
  • Illinois (12.0% of planting area),
  • Nebraska (10.3% of planting area),
  • Minnesota (9.1% of planting area),
  • South Dakota (6.4% of planting area),
  • Kansas (6.1% of planting area),
  • Indiana (6.0% of planting area).

Soybean planting area is estimated at 87.5 million acres, a very slight change (under +0.1%) y/y.

The most significant rising areas (>+10% y/y) are in:

  • North Dakota (+15% y/y).

The largest area drop (>-5%) is in:

  • Kansas (-9% y/y),
  • New Jersey (-9% y/y),
  • Oklahoma (-8% y/y),
  • Louisiana (-7% y/y),
  • Michigan (-7% y/y),
  • Delaware (-6% y/y),
  • Virginia (-6% y/y).

The main states of soybean production are:

  • Illinois (12.3% of planting area),
  • Iowa (11.5% of planting area),
  • North Dakota (7.5% of planting area),
  • Missouri (6.9% of planting area),
  • Nebraska (6.6% of planting area),
  • Indiana (6.4% of planting area),
  • South Dakota (6.1% of planting area),
  • Ohio (5.8% of planting area).

All wheat area will be 49.9 million acres (+9.0% y/y).

The most significant rising areas (>+20% y/y) are in:

  • Indiana (+52% y/y),
  • Michigan (+46% y/y),
  • Missouri (+37% y/y),
  • Illinois (+35% y/y),
  • Texas (+26% y/y),
  • New York (+21% y/y),
  • Mississippi (+20% y/y).

The largest area drop (>-10% y/y) is in:

  • Arizona (-53% y/y),
  • Georgia (-15% y/y).

The main states of all wheat production are:

  • Kansas (16.2% of planting area),
  • Texas (13.4% of planting area),
  • North Dakota (12.7% of planting area),
  • Montana (10.7% of planting area),
  • Oklahoma (9.2% of planting area),
  • Colorado (4.5% of planting area),
  • Washington (4.5% of planting area).

Cotton area should be 11.3 million acres (-18.0% y/y).

The most significant rising areas (>+1% y/y) are in:

  • Arizona (+13% y/y).

The largest area drop (>-10% y/y) is in:

  • Louisiana (-33% y/y),
  • Kansas (-30% y/y),
  • Arkansas (-25% y/y),
  • Mississippi (-25% y/y),
  • California (-23% y/y),
  • North Carolina (-23% y/y),
  • Texas (-21% y/y),
  • Florida (-15% y/y),
  • South Carolina (-11% y/y).

The main states of all cotton production are:

  • Texas (55.4% of planting area),
  • Georgia (10.7% of planting area),
  • Oklahoma (4.7% of planting area),
  • Arkansas (4.3% of planting area),
  • Alabama (3.6% of planting area).